Modèle:
HIRLAM(High Resolution Limited Area Model) from the Netherland Weather Service
Mise à jour:
4 times per day, from 06:00, 12:00, 18:00, and 00:00 UTC
Greenwich Mean Time:
12:00 UTC = 13:00 CET
Paramètre:
Sea Level Pressure in hPa
Description:
The surface chart (also known as surface synoptic chart) presents the distribution of
the atmospheric pressure observed at any given station on the earth's surface
reduced to sea level.
You can read the positions of the controlling weather features (highs, lows, ridges or
troughs) from the distribution of the isobars (lines of equal sea level pressure).
The isobars define the pressure field. The pressure field is the dominating player in
the weather system.
Additionally, this map helps you to identify synoptic-scale waves and gives you a first
estimate on meso-scale fronts.
Cluster of Ensemble Members:
20 members of an ensemble run are divided into different clusters which means groups with similar members according to the hierarchical "Ward method"
The average surface pressure of all members in each cluster are computed and shown as isobares.
The number of members in each cluster determines the probability of the forecast (see percentage)
Dendrogramme:
A dendrogram shows the multidimensional distances between objects in a tree-like structure. Objects that are closest in a multidimensional data space are connected by a horizontal line forming a cluster. The distance between a given pair of objects (or clusters) are indicated by the height of the horizontal line.
[http://www.statistics4u.info/fundstat_germ/cc_dendrograms]. The greater the distance the bigger the differences.
HIRLAM:
HIRLAMThe international HIRLAM project is a continuing effort to develop and maintain a state of the art high resolution limited area model for operational use in the participating institutes. By 2001 HIRLAM research developments had outstripped the operational HIRLAM system at KNMI through a substantial increase in model resolution and many improvements in the model formulation.
NWP:
La prévision numérique du temps (PNT) est une application de la météorologie et de l'informatique. Elle repose sur le choix d'équations mathématiques offrant une proche approximation du comportement de l'atmosphère réelle. Ces équations sont ensuite résolues, à l'aide d'un ordinateur, pour obtenir une simulation accélérée des états futurs de l'atmosphère. Le logiciel mettant en œuvre cette simulation est appelé un modèle de prévision numérique du temps.
Prévision numérique du temps. (2009, décembre 12). Wikipédia, l'encyclopédie libre. Page consultée le 20:48, février 9, 2010 à partir de
http://fr.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Pr%C3%A9vision_num%C3%A9rique_du_temps&oldid=47652746.