Model:

Times Series from the ECMWF

последнее обновление:
Update monthly
Greenwich Mean Time:
12:00 UTC = 15:00 MSK
Resolution:
1.0° x 1.0°
параметер:
Sea Level Pressure in hPa (solid lines) and equivalent potential temperature at 850 hPa (dashed and coloured)
Description:
The equivalent potential temperature is calculated from the specific humidity (ratio of mass of the water vapor to the total mass of the system) and the temperature, both at 850 hPa. Therefore, from this map one can read the fronts even better than from the 'RH 700 hPa' or other maps.
Introduction to seasonal forecasting:
The production of seasonal forecasts, also known as seasonal climate forecasts, has undergone a huge transformation in the last few decades: from a purely academic and research exercise in the early '90s to the current situation where several meteorological forecast services, throughout the world, conduct routine operational seasonal forecasting activities. Such activities are devoted to providing estimates of statistics of weather on monthly and seasonal time scales, which places them somewhere between conventional weather forecasts and climate predictions.
 
In that sense, even though seasonal forecasts share some methods and tools with weather forecasting, they are part of a different paradigm which requires treating them in a different way. Instead of trying to answer to the question "how is the weather going to look like on a particular location in an specific day?", seasonal forecasts will tell us how likely it is that the coming season will be wetter, drier, warmer or colder than 'usual' for that time of year. This kind of long term predictions are feasible due to the behaviour of some of the Earth system components which evolve more slowly than the atmosphere (e.g. the ocean, the cryosphere) and in a predictable fashion, so their influence on the atmosphere can add a noticeable signal.
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