Modelo:

CFS: The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS)

Actualização:
1 times per day, at 17:00 UTC
Greenwich Mean Time:
12:00 UTC = 12:00 WET
Resolution:
1.0° x 1.0°
parâmetro:
Cloud cover (low,middle,high,total)
Descrição:
Clouds are vertically divided into three levels: low, middle, and high. Each level is defined by the range of levels at which each type of clouds typically appears.

Level Polar Region Temperate Region Tropical Region
High Clouds 10,000-25,000 ft
(3-8 km)
16,500-40,000 ft
(5-13 km)
20,000-60,000 ft
(6-18 km)
Middle Clouds 6,500-13,000 ft
(2-4 km)
6,500-23,000 ft
(2-7 km)
6,500-25,000 ft
(2-8 km)
Low Clouds Surface-6,500 ft
(0-2 km)
Surface-6,500 ft
(0-2 km)
Surface-6,500 ft
(0-2 km)


The types of clouds are:

High clouds: Cirrus (Ci), Cirrocumulus (Cc), and Cirrostratus (Cs). They are typically thin and white in appearance, but can appear in a magnificent array of colors when the sun is low on the horizon.

Middle clouds: Altocumulus (Ac), Altostratus (As). They are composed primarily of water droplets, however, they can also be composed of ice crystals when temperatures are low enough.

Low clouds: Cumulus (Cu), Stratocumulus (Sc), Stratus (St), and Cumulonimbus (Cb) are low clouds composed of water droplets.
CFS:
The CFS model is different to any other operational weather forecasting model you will see on Weatheronline.
Developed at the Environmental Modelling Center at NCEP (National Centers for Environment Prediction) in the USA, the CFS became operational in August 2004.
The systems works by taking reanalysis data (NCEP Reanalysis 2) and ocean conditions from GODAS (Global Ocean data Assimilation). Both of these data sets are for the previous day, and so you should be aware that before initialisation the data is already one day old.
Four runs of the model are then made, each with slightly differing starting conditions, and from these a prediction is made.
Caution should be employed when using the forecasts made by the CFS. However, it is useful when monitored daily in assessing forecasts for the coming months, the confidence levels in these forecasts and in an assessment of how such long range models perform.
A description of the CFS is given in the following manuscript.
S. Saha, S. Nadiga, C. Thiaw, J. Wang, W. Wang, Q. Zhang, H. M. van den Dool, H.-L. Pan, S. Moorthi, D. Behringer, D. Stokes, M. Pena, S. Lord, G. White, W. Ebisuzaki, P. Peng, P. Xie , 2006 : The NCEP Climate Forecast System. Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, No. 15, pages 3483.3517.
http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/
NWP:
A previsão numérica do tempo usa o estado instantâneo da atmosfera como dados de entrada para modelos matemáticos da atmosfera, com vista à previsão do estado do tempo.
Apesar dos primeiros esforços para conseguir prever o tempo tivessem sido dados na década de 1920, foi apenas com o advento da era dos computadores que foi possível realizá-lo em tempo real. A manipulação de grandes conjuntos de dados e a realização de cálculos complexos para o conseguir com uma resolução suficientemente elevada para produzir resultados úteis requer o uso dos supercomputadores mais potentes do mundo. Um conjunto de modelos de previsão, quer à escala global quer à escala regional, são executados para criar previsões do tempo nacionais. O uso de previsões com modelos semelhantes ("model ensembles") ajuda a definir a incerteza da previsão e estender a previsão do tempo bastante mais no futuro, o que não seria possível conseguir de outro modo.

Contribuidores da Wikipédia, "Previsão numérica do tempo," Wikipédia, a enciclopédia livre, http://pt.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Previs%C3%A3o_num%C3%A9rica_do_tempo&oldid=17351675 (accessed fevereiro 9, 2010).